Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth

Here’s an article by Harold Burger that models Bitcoin’s price using a power-law function. An exponential function is the only thing that makes sense given that Bitcoin’s price has risen by an order of magnitude once every few years. This is why it’s better to look at the long-term Bitcoin price using logarithmic chart scales rather than linear. In this article, we see the methodology, charts, and interpretations of the power-law function used in this model. It’s good food for thought. As the author puts it:

I am quite confident that in the long-term, the price will indeed evolve approximately as stated in this article. In fact, I think it is more likely for these predictions to be too low rather than too high: I believe that bitcoin has more potential upside than downside to large exogenous shocks. But this article will not try to make any predictions regarding large exogenous shocks.

I can’t help but emphatically agreeing. At some point, indeed due to ‘exogenous shocks’, the price is going to go unbelievably high unbelievably quickly. And it won’t crash as drastically as after previous price manias. Price will plateau and leave behind all those who did not allocate to Bitcoin. Then they will be compelled to adopt Bitcoin by sheer economic reality.

Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth

Disclaimer: This article is not financial advice. With growing adoption of the cryptocurrency, its future price has been the subject of more and more speculation. Predictions are all over the board, with some economists like Nouriel Roubini predicting a price of 0 within five years, whereas John McAfee has famously predicted a price of $1 million per bitcoin by the end of 2020.

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