Falsifying Stock-to-Flow as a Model of Bitcoin Value

Piggybacking on yesterday’s post, here is a follow up by another anonymous quant, Nick. The title of the article is a little misleading, but makes sense given his method for scientific discover, Falsifiability:

According to the great modern scientific philosopher Karl Popper, testing a hypothesis for an incorrect outcome is the only reliable way to add weight to the argument that it is correct¹.

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Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity

I realized I have never posted about the seminal Stock-to-Flow modeling done by PlanB earlier this year. This is content that is simply MUST READ for anyone interested in Bitcoin.

In this paper, PlanB quantifies Bitcoin’s scarcity using stock-to-flow, and then uses stock-to-flow to model bitcoin’s value.… Read more